Most pollsters gave Gianforte the lead. Gravis Marketing had him up 49 percent to 35 percent. A Change Research poll put Quist closer, with Gianforte ahead 49 percent to 44 percent. Two Google Consumer Surveys put into the field over the last three weeks actually had Quist up by 7 and 14 percentage points, respectively. In other words, there’s a wide spread in the publicly available data.
However since Gianforte went all roid rage on that Guardian reporter there has been a significant shift in perceptions of the race.
For one thing Gianforte lost a newspaper endorsement:
We're at a loss for words.
And as people who wrangle words on a minute-by-minute basis, that doesn't happen often.
What happens even less — hopefully never again — is a Montana candidate assaulting a reporter. While there are still questions left unanswered about GOP House hopeful Greg Gianforte's altercation with Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs, eyewitness accounts, law enforcement investigations and records are all shocking, disturbing and without precedent.
That's why The Billings Gazette editorial board is also doing something without precedent: We're rescinding our editorial endorsement of Greg Gianforte.
And that was only one of three.
Of course as reported yesterday the Gianforte campaign is asserting that THEY were the injured party.
And of course the Right Wing media has been quick to jump to their defense.
Sadly for them however there was a local Fox affiliate who were eyewitnesses to the incident:What kind of a wuss files charges over broken glasses? Someone who wants to influence an outcome, that's who. #JournalismIsDead— Derek Hunter (@derekahunter) May 25, 2017
As the time for the interview neared, Gianforte came into the room. We exchanged pleasantries and made small talk about restaurants and Bozeman.
During that conversation, another man — who we now know is Ben Jacobs of The Guardian — walked into the room with a voice recorder, put it up to Gianforte's face and began asking if he had a response to the newly released Congressional Budget Office report on the American Health Care Act. Gianforte told him he would get to him later. Jacobs persisted with his question. Gianforte told him to talk to his press guy, Shane Scanlon.
At that point, Gianforte grabbed Jacobs by the neck with both hands and slammed him into the ground behind him. Faith, Keith and I watched in disbelief as Gianforte then began punching the reporter. As Gianforte moved on top of Jacobs, he began yelling something to the effect of, "I'm sick and tired of this!"
"Then began punching the reporter." Boy there's a bumper sticker for you.
The Fox News team also added this:
To be clear, at no point did any of us who witnessed this assault see Jacobs show any form of physical aggression toward Gianforte, who left the area after giving statements to local sheriff's deputies.
In response to these statements Gianforte has been charged with misdemeanor assault.
Now this being Montana, apparently beating the shit out of someone for asking a question is not necessarily the end of your campaign, so Gainforte could still win this.
But if he does win it could be the worst possible outcome for the GOP.
Courtesy of CNN:
If Gianforte loses, he -- and the story -- disappear. Republicans would immediately blame his last-minute implosion for the defeat, allowing them to avoid the idea that the race should be properly read as a national referendum on Trump and the recently-passed American Health Care Act. (Worth noting: Before Gianforte's choke-slam on Jacobs, the race had been tightening due to the corroding national environment for Republicans.)
Now, consider what happens if Gianforte wins. Some time between now and June 7, he will have to appear in court to face the assault charge. And based on the audio provided by Jacobs as well as the eyewitness reports from a Fox News crew, it's hard to see how he doesn't get convicted. (Nota bene: I am not a lawyer.)
What do Republicans do then? Every member of leadership will be asked, daily, whether seating Gianforte represents a willingness to look the other way. And for a party already struggling with branding issues, that's not the sort of story House Republicans need bouncing around Washington.
If they don't seat Gianforte, then what? Can they force him to resign? And would that mean -- as I suspect it would -- another special election where the Democratic nominee, Rob Quist, would almost certainly run and might well start as the front-runner due to the controversy surrounding Gianforte?
Gianforte losing is a bad story for national Republicans. Gianforte winning might well be a worse one.
Those are good points.
All I know is that an election in Montana that had once been well off my radar, has now become much too fascinating to ignore.
Source http://ift.tt/2r17p59
