Sam Wang has crunched the data from polls released in October to judge the effect of FBI Director James Comey's letter on the election:
From opinion data alone, it is possible to estimate when a change occurred. This can test between alternative explanations, which include not only the Comey letter (October 28th) but preceding events such as the announcement of a hike in Affordable Care Act premiums (October 24th).
I calculated a day-by-day margin using polling data from the Huffington Post…After the Affordable Care Act premium hike announcement, opinion did not move for days…However, the big change does coincide well with the release of the Comey letter. Opinion swung toward Trump by 4 percentage points, and about half of this was a lasting change.
Hillary Clinton lost 4 points when the letter was released. She eventually gained back some of that, but it looks like 2 points were permanent. This jibes well with Nate Silver's estimate that the Comey letter cost Clinton 2 points.
Gee look, that polls WEREN'T wrong after all.
The Right is working hard to spin election loss as being the fault of the Clinton campaign for not working harder to reach the people in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but the facts are that Hillary did reach out to working class people.
However it is hard to win over the American people when the director of the FBI is insinuating that you are about to be indicted on criminal charges at any moment.
Hillary Clinton did not lose this election, it was stolen from her.
Source http://ift.tt/2gLf6cp
